Scientists have discovered a new asteroid with a one-in-83 chance of hitting Earth directly. The asteroid, known as Asteroid 2024 YR4, is currently 27 million miles from Earth and is expected to come close to our planet in December 2032. But is it really a threat?
This new asteroid has captured the attention of astronomers worldwide, and for good reason. With the current estimated odds of impact, it has one of the highest probabilities of collision ever recorded for an object of its size. While the likelihood of a direct hit is still low, its close approach in 2032 means scientists are keeping a close watch on its trajectory.
If it does hit, the consequences could be significant. Estimated to measure 196 feet (60 meters) wide, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is roughly the size of the asteroid responsible for 1908’s Tunguska event. That event flattened 80 million trees across a 2,150 square-kilometer (830-square-mile) area. The impact energy was estimated to be equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT.
Despite the concerning statistics, experts stress that there is no need to panic yet. The asteroid’s orbit is still not fully mapped, and current models suggest the most likely scenario is a near miss rather than an impact.
David Rankin, an engineer with the Catalina Sky Survey, has been tracking the asteroid closely. He told Space.com that further observations are needed to refine the trajectory. In 2028, Asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass within 5 million miles (8 million km) of Earth, giving scientists a crucial opportunity to gather more accurate data.
Asteroids and meteors hit Earth all the time. But those are usually so small they burn up in the atmosphere. If the asteroid does enter Earth’s atmosphere, the damage will depend on its composition. If it is made of rock, it will likely explode in the atmosphere in what’s called an airburst, creating a massive shockwave that could cause widespread damage over hundreds of miles.
If Asteroid 2024 YR4 is made of iron, it could survive atmospheric entry and strike the ground, creating a large crater and sending debris into the air. The impact corridor currently extends from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa. However, this projection could change significantly as new data is gathered.
Astronomers are using powerful telescopes to track the asteroid’s movements and refine their calculations. NASA and ESA have already placed it at the top of their asteroid risk lists, ensuring it remains a high-priority object for observation.
While space agencies have tested asteroid deflection strategies—such as NASA’s DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of a small asteroid in 2022—no current plans exist to intervene with Asteroid 2024 YR4. That could change if future data confirms a direct impact. For now, though, observations point toward the asteroid barely missing Earth, as seen in the simulation shared by amateur astronomer Tony Dunn above.
This is obviously a serious concern. Right now, the data suggests it will likely miss Earth, but astronomers aren’t taking chances. Over the next few years, continuous tracking and improved calculations will determine whether this space rock is a near-miss or a real danger.
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Everyone’s talking about a new asteroid heading towards Earth, but is it a threat? originally appeared on BGR.com on Thu, 30 Jan 2025 at 16:36:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.